While the 2018 elections are approaching, few believe that anything will change in the army’s control of the Egyptian regime. When the regime imprisoned opposing candidates General Sami Hafez Ana and Khaled Ali and others withdrew from the electoral race, it was made crystal clear that Al-Sisi’-s position would not be at stake. So, why should anyone study the upcoming Egyptian elections? Could there be a real opposition or is Sisi that untouchable?

The coup of the 15th of July was a real coup and marked the most violent moment in the Erdogan-Gulen conflict. The event as such and its aftermath are complicated and multilevel analysis is needed. The character of the armed forces, the balance of power in the political and the military field, the political and social reality and the possible implications for the future are aspects to be studied.

As the dust settles from Egypt’s so-called “popular coup” on July 3, it has become clear that Egyptian society is deeply polarized. There is a vast gulf between those who supported the army’s actions in removing President Morsi, and those from the Muslim Brotherhood who insist on the illegality of his deposition and demand his reinstatement. In the midst of this standoff, a number of activists have appeared that mistrust both sides, believing that the alternative to Islamic rule is not simply military rule. This article provides an overview of the factors leading to renewed support for the Egyptian military, suggesting considerations for those who see it as a viable alternative to the Brotherhood’s rule.

On March 19, millions of voters rallied to polling centers to take part in Egypt’s first free and fair elections in nearly six decades. At least 25 million of Egypt’s 40 million eligible voters came out in an unprecedented turnout to cast their vote for a series of amendments to Egypt’s constitution[i], passing the referendum with the endorsement of 77 percent of voters[ii]. Specifically, the amendments limited the presidential term from six to four years, and imposed a two-term limit on each nominee. Newly elected presidents are now required to appoint a vice president within 60 days of resuming office, and presidential authority to declare a state of emergency has been circumscribed. Moreover, an article that empowered the state in the fight against terrorism was abolished due to the huge abuses of power it legitimated under the Mubarak regime. Finally, the referendum supported full judicial supervision of votes, a measure intended to ensure that free, transparent elections are held. The passing of the referendum will effectively pave the way for parliamentary elections to be held in June, followed by the presidential elections in August or September.

The flight BA2886 from London to Tunis on the 30th of January 2011[i] was not just another ordinary air cruise. Among the passengers, over 20 years the exiled Mohammed Ghanouchi, the leader of Nahda party was finally about to step on Tunisian soil, marking the end of Ben Ali’s era. An era which is reshaping the politics of Middle East, known for its sclerotic and archaic regimes. While the triumph of the Arab Street toppling the 23 years Tunisian President surprised many, the world’s attention turned over to the Egyptian protests for more than two weeks, demanding the end to Hosni Mubarak’s presidency who is ruling the country since 23 Jul 1952 and by Emergency Law since 1981.

Τρεις είναι οι βασικοί παράγοντες που κάνουν την περίπτωση της εξέγερσης της Λιβύης πιο περίπλοκη και πιο δύσκολη από τις εξεγέρσεις της Τυνησίας και της Αιγύπτου: ο θεσμός των φυλών, το πετρέλαιο, και οι παραστρατιωτικές ομάδες (μισθοφόροι) [i]. Το σύστημα των φυλών αποτελεί την βάση για τον έλεγχο των ισορροπιών των πολιτικών δυνάμεων στη χώρα και ο Καντάφι στηρίζει το καθεστώς του στις φυλετικές συμμαχίες, εφαρμόζοντας την πολιτική «διαίρει και βασίλευε». Η Λιβύη, είναι μέλος του ΟΠΕΚ[ii], με τα αποθέματα πετρελαίου της εκτιμώνται σε 44 δις βαρέλια , δηλ το 3,2 % των παγκοσμίων αποθεμάτων[iii]. Παράλληλα, οι επενδύσεις της χώρας σε άλλα κράτη του κόσμου ξεπερνούν τα 70 δις εκ $. Τέλος, σύμφωνα με εκτιμήσεις, ο αριθμός των μισθοφόρων κυμαίνεται μεταξύ 120.000 και 150.000. Οι περισσότεροι προέρχονται από χώρες της Αφρικής όπως το Τσαντ, η Σενεγάλη, το Μάλι, η Δημοκρατία της Κεντρικής Αφρικής, η Νιγηρία και η Γουινέα (ενδεχομένως να υπάρχουν και Άραβες μεταξύ τους). Σε αυτό το σώμα των μισθοφόρων καταλογίζονται αρκετά εγκλήματα πολέμου και εγκλήματα κατά της ανθρωπότητας στη Λιβύη.

Στην Αίγυπτο έγινε πραξικόπημα. Ούτε επανάσταση, ούτε κίνημα, απλά στρατιωτικό πραξικόπημα με όλα τα χαρακτηριστικά που δίνουν στο φαινόμενο αυτό τα σχετικά επιστημονικά εγχειρίδια. Σαφώς το πραξικόπημα αυτό διευκολύνθηκε από ένα τεράστιο μαζικό κίνημα διαμαρτυρίας εναντίον της κυβέρνησης των Αδελφών Μουσουλμάνων και του ανατραπέντος Προέδρου Μόρσι. Να δούμε όμως πρώτα ποιά ήταν τα αίτια της προβληματικής διακυβέρνησης του Μόρσι και των Αδελφών.