ΚΕΝΤΡΟ ΜΕΣΟΓΕΙΑΚΩΝ, ΜΕΣΑΝΑΤΟΛΙΚΩΝ & ΙΣΛΑΜΙΚΩΝ ΣΠΟΥΔΩΝ

The Two-state solution has been the cornerstone of every single attempt of the international community to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These days the prospect of a peaceful, permanent resolution is fading fast. The Israeli government is following a policy of constant settlement building in the occupied territories, an illegal activity under international law. The Palestinian leadership at the same time, trapped in its own microcosm, aging and failing, is preoccupied with maintaining whatever power it has. 50 years after the occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip things are slowly reaching a boiling point, where the pressure could erupt anytime with unprecedented consequences.

Lebanon is in a state of numbness. The deadlock over the presidential election and the Saudi pressure has fired up a political debate and animosity between the two opposing camps, the March 14 alliance and the March 8 alliance. Sa’ad Hariri has attempted to create some sort of momentum towards electing a president and, at the same time, to protect his interests, but it has not bore any fruits. Hezbollah on the other side, continues to essentially control the political developments, by boycotting the election process and perpetuating the stalemate.

The Syrian war has been affecting Jordan directly and indirectly for the past few years. The refugee crisis and the rise of jihadism in the region has challenged both its political system and its social cohesion. The inability to cope with the constantly growing needs of the refugee population, along with the simmering political unrest, is threatening the social cohesion of the country, while the rise of Salafism poses a threat to the stability of the regime. The way with which the state reacts to these challenges will shape Jordan’s future for the next years to come.

Hezbollah’s growth in the past years has been evident on many levels. It is the dominant political force in Lebanon and has been using its growing confidence to spread its influence beyond Lebanese borders. Hezbollah has been assisting Shiite movements across the region, and has taken an active role in the Syrian civil war on the side of Bashar al-Assad, shaping developments on the ground. The increasing importance of non-state actors, like Hezbollah and the al-Nusra Front in the shaping of the reality on the ground cannot be ignored. Regional politics are transforming and the Middle East follows suit. 

Iran has consistently attempted to portray the Arab spring as an "Islamic Awakening" and a continuation of its own Iranian revolution of 1979, in an attempt to further its main goal, the consolidation of its role as regional power. By choosing to ignore the clearly political, and not religious, context of the Arab uprisings, Iran has failed to mobilize the Muslim world under its wing. Its goal of achieving a "leader" status in the region, could be threatened even more by the risk of failure of the ongoing nuclear talks, and also by the menacing presence of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Η νίκη του Likud και του Benjamin Netanyahu στις ισραηλινές εκλογές της 17ης Μαρτίου προκάλεσε πολλές αντιδράσεις για διάφορους λόγους. Αρχικά διότι κανείς δεν την περίμενε, αλλά κυρίως λόγω των δηλώσεων του Ισραηλινού πρωθυπουργού περί μη ίδρυσης παλαιστινιακού κράτους κατά την πρωθυπουργία του. Η νέα κυβέρνηση της χώρας, αποτελούμενη αποκλειστικά από κόμματα της δεξιάς και άκρα δεξιάς, σε αντίθεση με τις προηγούμενες κυβερνήσεις, όπου συμμετείχαν και κεντρώα κόμματα, έχει να αντιμετωπίσει την αυξανόμενη πίεση της διεθνούς κοινότητας στο θέμα της Παλαιστίνης. Ιδίως οι σχέσεις του Ισραήλ με τις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες βρίσκονται στο ναδίρ, και θα χρειαστεί μεγάλη προσπάθεια για να υπάρξει αναθέρμανση τους.