ΚΕΝΤΡΟ ΜΕΣΟΓΕΙΑΚΩΝ, ΜΕΣΑΝΑΤΟΛΙΚΩΝ & ΙΣΛΑΜΙΚΩΝ ΣΠΟΥΔΩΝ

Recent years have witnessed warming ties between Egypt and Israel. Far from forging a deeper and more comprehensive relationship between the two countries, this rapprochement has successfully glossed over long-standing differences with an eye to addressing immediate geopolitical challenges. A natural corollary of converging strategic, economic and security interests and challenges, the rapprochement is likely to remain intact in the mid-term. It can thus be seen as a continuation of the ‘strategic peace’ established during the second decade of President Mubarak’s rule.

Among the promises the U.S. President Donald J. Trump has made is the formulation of a plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue. To that end, the task was assigned to Jared Kushner, senior adviser to the White House and his son-in law.[1] However, the details of the plan known as the “Deal of the Century” are yet to be released. In the meantime, recent developments, generated by the actions taken by the U.S. administration and their implications on the both Israel and Palestine need to be taken seriously into consideration, as they directly influence the already fragile situation on the ground.

The Khashoggi case has put a magnifying glass on the instability of relations among Middle East countries and especially on the turbulent relationship between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Turkey is in no position to take head on the Saudi kingdom regarding the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi; at the same time Erdogan cannot ignore such an overpublicized incident. Khashoggi may be the opportunity Erdogan was looking for in order to re-approach Saudi Arabia and the US, and establish Turkey as a strong middle power in the region. Only time will show if the rapprochement will be considered as a prudent diplomatic move by Erdogan.

Once more Sudan is stricken by protest. Sudanese are on the streets due to the increase of bread prices. The government responded violently towards the dissent. Five people lost their lives, around 60 have been arrested including the leader of the Sudanese Communist Party Mokhtar al- Khatib, and the regime blocked the sale of several newspapers.

Economic reasons solely are behind the demonstrations. The prices of basic needs and commodities such as bread, medicine, electricity and fuel have increased in unprecedented levels. The government eliminated wheat subsidies from its 2018 budget. It’s adopting austerity measures in line with IMF recommendations, and inflation rose to 25 % making extremely difficult for ordinary Sudanese to buy imported goods. The country is also lacking hard currency to facilitate needed imports. The measures aim to make Sudanese economy more competitive since it can no longer depend on its oil resources since 2011 when South Sudanese separated, after a half century of war with Sudan. The longest Africa has ever seen.  

While the 2018 elections are approaching, few believe that anything will change in the army’s control of the Egyptian regime. When the regime imprisoned opposing candidates General Sami Hafez Ana and Khaled Ali and others withdrew from the electoral race, it was made crystal clear that Al-Sisi’-s position would not be at stake. So, why should anyone study the upcoming Egyptian elections? Could there be a real opposition or is Sisi that untouchable?

Saudi Arabia is undergoing significant political change as it moves from family rule to a one man state. Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman is undertaking a series of reforms with implications both to Saudi society and economy and to the regional strategy of the country. His aspirations to restructure the economy and provide some freedoms to segments of society are combined with an aggressive foreign policy resulting in the war in Yemen and tensions with other neighbors such as Qatar. However, these initiatives might be an indication of the efforts for a greater concentration of power on the hands of the Crown Prince and have led to what has been described as a “palace coup”.[1]

The decision of the Kurdistan Regional Government to proceed with the independence bid on September 25, precipitated a serious crisis in the region. Seemingly, one important question to be addressed is the consequences the Kurdish referendum engenders to the recently shaped Iran-Turkey-Russia axis, particularly on the Syrian issue. Whereas Iran and Turkey often find themselves at loggerheads over regional issues, their shared concern in preventing Kurdish statehood, seems to provide the necessary fuel towards cooperation, if not alliance-building. Russia, in the meanwhile, has adopted a “wait-and-see” policy on the matter. Still, the extent to this cooperation can be much constrained by their own diverging interests in the region.

Integration is considered the most durable solution for refugees in Europe and it is understood as the end product of a dynamic and multifaceted two-way process with three interrelated dimensions: a legal, an economic and a social-cultural dimension.[1] The EU Common Basic Principles, adopted in 2004, define integration as “a dynamic, two-way process of mutual accommodation by all immigrants and residents of Member States,” and include reference to the importance of employment, education, civic and community participation, as well as of cultural and religious diversity.

Lebanon’s size has always been inversely proportional to the magnitude of its turbulence. More of a mirror of the region’s intricacies than a catalyst, the country offers a unique regional case; although in ever-simmering tension, it manages to escape the contours of a country-wide flare-up. This is more often than not attributed to the country’s bitter memories of the civil war (1975-1990). For others, it is the product of an ill-thought out, yet relatively balanced consociational mechanism of power-sharing.

Οι εκλογές για Πρόεδρο στο Ιράν είχαν «διαφύγει» της προσοχής των ΜΜΕ στην Δύση. Μόλις πρόσφατα το Foreign Affairs διέθεσε μια σύντομη ανάλυση για τις εκλογές προβάλλοντας μια μάλλον απλουστευτική εικόνα των προεδρικών αναμετρήσεων στο Ιράν. Βασικός άξονας της ανάλυσης ήταν ότι στα τελευταία είκοσι χρόνια η ιρανική κοινωνία ψηφίζει εκείνο τον υποψήφιο που δεν αποτελεί επιλογή του καθεστώτος και ιδιαίτερα εναντίον του υποψηφίου που υποστηρίζεται από τον Ανώτατο Θρησκευτικό Ηγέτη, Αγιατολάχ Χαμενεΐ. Η προσέγγιση αυτή δεν εξηγεί βέβαια την εκλογή Αχμαντινετζάντ αλλά εκεί, σύμφωνα με τους υποστηρικτές της, έγινε νοθεία οπότε δεν δημιουργείται πρόβλημα στο ερμηνευτικό σχήμα.