Lebanon is in a state of numbness. The deadlock over the presidential election and the Saudi pressure has fired up a political debate and animosity between the two opposing camps, the March 14 alliance and the March 8 alliance. Sa’ad Hariri has attempted to create some sort of momentum towards electing a president and, at the same time, to protect his interests, but it has not bore any fruits. Hezbollah on the other side, continues to essentially control the political developments, by boycotting the election process and perpetuating the stalemate.

Hezbollah’s growth in the past years has been evident on many levels. It is the dominant political force in Lebanon and has been using its growing confidence to spread its influence beyond Lebanese borders. Hezbollah has been assisting Shiite movements across the region, and has taken an active role in the Syrian civil war on the side of Bashar al-Assad, shaping developments on the ground. The increasing importance of non-state actors, like Hezbollah and the al-Nusra Front in the shaping of the reality on the ground cannot be ignored. Regional politics are transforming and the Middle East follows suit. 

Throughout its history, Lebanon has always seemed to be fighting the wars of others at the expense of its national unity. Due to the current surge in violence, analysts and politicians have been expressing fears of its descent into a civil war for a long time now. The question is: how come it hasn’t erupted yet?

As a result of the Syrian crisis, Shia’a and Sunni sporadic clashes are taking place mainly in northern Lebanon, including vindictive abductions and even arrests of politicians. Many analysts and politicians have been warning of a highly possible spillover of the Syrian crisis in Lebanon. First due to the intense sectarian character and vulnerability of Lebanon and second due to Hezbollah’s influence -backed by Syria and Iran- in the Lebanese political arena. The domestic realities of Lebanon and the critical situation of Hezbollah’s allies are bringing Hezbollah to a crossroad: will it join the fight to support Assad or not? The decisions to be made by the ‘Party of God’ at this point will be decisive not only for itself but for Lebanon as well.

Though not in the forefront of the mass media coverage of the Middle East and often overshadowed by more spectacular but not necessarily more important players, Syria remains the key to many issues in the Middle East. The Syrian regime has survived American neo-conservative regime-change assault on the region and at the same time it plays a pivotal role in four interdependent fields of regional antagonism: Lebanon, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the regional Arab order and, last but not least, the issue of Iranian hegemony.

Part of the ingrained and predominant discourse of Lebanese politics is characterized by visionary and promising elements which culminate in the image of a dream: the dream of building up Lebanon, a viable Lebanon, a stable and flourishing one and above all a sovereign Lebanon. This notion of a dream has been used by many politicians - prominent among them former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri - as one of their favourite buzzwords and has turned into a useful rhetorical means which captures Lebanese sentiments as it nurtures hope of a better future. Against the background of forthcoming elections and prearrangements for the launching of an international tribunal aimed at convicting al-Hariri's murderers the question arises what has happened to the dream: has it been deferred, become extinct or lived on?

?I call upon all of you, politicians and citizens, to start a new phase called Lebanon and the Lebanese ? in order to achieve the interests of the nation.? This was General Suleiman?s appeal at his swearing-in ceremony in Beirut last May. His election as president was the result of the Doha accord which brokered a deal to end clashes between Hizbullah and its allies against Future Movement militias which brought back haunting memories of the civil war. However, recent developments imply that Sleiman?s words do not reverberate in politicians? ears anymore. May?s euphoria seems to be fading away as the problem of power sharing in Lebanon is still visible. Lebanese factions still draw strength and support from outside while allowing foreign forces to use them for the advancement of their cause