CENTRE for MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST & ISLAMIC STUDIES

Three main factors seem to affect the stance of Iran towards the wave of uprisings that have shaken the Arab world since January. The first is the ideological paradigm of the Islamic revolution while the second comprises the real strategic possibilities for Iran to exploit the situation and gain pre-eminence in the region. The last factor is the internal political situation, which has demonstrated that the regime is not immune to similar popular upheavals.

The wave of regional uprisings reached Syria in mid- March, with opposition organisers and protesters being rounded up daily. The Syrian regime responded immediately using disproportionate force in order to quell protesters and emphasise the consequences of dissent. However, Syria’s internal frustration is of particular importance due to the country’s regional significance.

On March 19, millions of voters rallied to polling centers to take part in Egypt’s first free and fair elections in nearly six decades. At least 25 million of Egypt’s 40 million eligible voters came out in an unprecedented turnout to cast their vote for a series of amendments to Egypt’s constitution[i], passing the referendum with the endorsement of 77 percent of voters[ii]. Specifically, the amendments limited the presidential term from six to four years, and imposed a two-term limit on each nominee. Newly elected presidents are now required to appoint a vice president within 60 days of resuming office, and presidential authority to declare a state of emergency has been circumscribed. Moreover, an article that empowered the state in the fight against terrorism was abolished due to the huge abuses of power it legitimated under the Mubarak regime. Finally, the referendum supported full judicial supervision of votes, a measure intended to ensure that free, transparent elections are held. The passing of the referendum will effectively pave the way for parliamentary elections to be held in June, followed by the presidential elections in August or September.

Last week’s popular protests in Bahrain and Yemen have revived some strategic questions. The regimes of both countries are important U.S. military allies in the region and their internal affairs have strong reverberations on Saudi Arabia's security. The possibility of Iran exploiting the situation to expand its influence in the region and the penetration of Al Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula are further elements of concern.

The flight BA2886 from London to Tunis on the 30th of January 2011[i] was not just another ordinary air cruise. Among the passengers, over 20 years the exiled Mohammed Ghanouchi, the leader of Nahda party was finally about to step on Tunisian soil, marking the end of Ben Ali’s era. An era which is reshaping the politics of Middle East, known for its sclerotic and archaic regimes. While the triumph of the Arab Street toppling the 23 years Tunisian President surprised many, the world’s attention turned over to the Egyptian protests for more than two weeks, demanding the end to Hosni Mubarak’s presidency who is ruling the country since 23 Jul 1952 and by Emergency Law since 1981.

Obama's State of the Union address on January 24, 2012 was devoted mainly to United States' current socio-economic problems. This focus on United States internal problems should come as no surprise. It is clear that the severe economic crisis that engulfs the United States these days is the highest priority of the American people.

From Iraq in the north down to the Arabian Peninsula and west all the way to Morocco, tribal values have had a strong influence on shaping the political culture and state-society relations in the Middle East. Historians remind us that throughout the span of the Middle East’ history, tribes have often posed a credible threat to central governments, and have played an important role in the making and dismantling of ruling dynasties.

The revolutions and the uprisings in the Middle East changed the balances in the region and, consequently, Russia’s perspective on it. Russia had to face the risk of losing relatively new gains, as well as dilemmas on which side to favour, especially in the case of Libya and Syria. It can be said that Moscow generally remained a “royal realist,” standing on the side of its interest and trying to adapt its policies to the ad hoc developments. The way Russian policy will develop and the extent to which the already made choices have been successful or not are both still “under process.”

The “Arab Spring” in general and especially the Egyptian peoples’ quest for democracy have dominated the reports, analyses as well as reportages of the international academia and Press during the last months. However, less attention has been paid to the reasons why a non-democratic regime in Egypt had lasted for so long. The analysis of these factors should give a clear picture to the reader of the great difficulty in toppling Mubarak’s system and the importance of the Egyptian peoples’ revolution.

Osama is dead. Seemingly, there couldn’t be a worst time for alQaeda. The death of a leader in the midst of confusing and challenging developments is never good news for a militant “vanguard” organization like Al Qaeda, who together with the Salafi-jihadi current in general, found themselves up against the wall by the untimely winds of the Arab Spring. Nevertheless, by one of those twists of history, the death of Osama may turn into a very timely development for the survival of “Jihad